Explanation
Actuarial Justice refers to a mode of criminal justice and social control that relies on statistical techniques and risk assessment models to predict and manage future behavior. The term draws on the logic of actuarial science—traditionally used in insurance and finance—to classify populations based on aggregate risk factors rather than individual actions or intentions.
Rather than asking “Why did this individual offend?”, actuarial justice asks “What is the likelihood that this type of person will offend?” The focus shifts from retrospective judgment to prospective risk management. Individuals are no longer addressed as unique moral agents but as part of statistically defined groups, such as high-risk youth, habitual offenders, or recidivists.
Typical applications include:
- Parole and sentencing decisions based on risk scores
- Predictive policing
- Profiling in counter-terrorism
- Social sorting in welfare and immigration systems
Critics argue that actuarial justice depersonalizes justice, undermines the principle of individual responsibility, and perpetuates structural biases, especially through the use of algorithmic systems that may reproduce racial, economic, or spatial inequalities.
Theoretical Reference
The concept was popularized by Malcolm Feeley and Jonathan Simon in their influential 1992 article “The New Penology.” They argued that contemporary justice systems are shifting from rehabilitation and punishment toward risk management and efficiency. The idea also intersects with Foucault’s theory of biopolitics and the rise of governance through statistics, as well as David Garland’s reflections on the culture of control.